Q2 2025 analysis: price volatility in the Iberian market, renewables at record highs and upward pressure on futures.
Q2 2025 report: how the Iberian gas and electricity market moved
The second quarter of 2025 was defined by considerable volatility in electricity and gas prices, against a backdrop of accelerating energy transition.
Electricity
Baseload and solar prices fell sharply over the period, hitting record lows in May on the back of heavy renewable generation — solar in particular, which at one point traded negative (-€0.23/MWh). June saw both products rebound, a reminder of how volatile this market is and of the weight that system management carries after extraordinary events.
On electricity futures, Cal 26 closed at €61.05/MWh after modest gains, while Cal 27 held steadier and settled around €59.5/MWh.
Gas
The MIBGAS spot price ranged between €29.55/MWh and €43.54/MWh: falling through April, stabilising in May, and spiking briefly in June before correcting quickly. Gas futures also came under upward pressure, especially Cal 26, which peaked near €36/MWh in mid-June.
What drove it
- Stronger hydro generation: reservoir levels above the historical average.
- CO₂: prices recovered to close at €67.98/t.
- Global factors: Brent at $67.61/bbl and the euro-dollar at 1.172, adding further pressure to energy markets.
In short, Q2 2025 shows an energy market shaped by the renewable transition, by how the electricity system is managed, and by international factors that keep volatility firmly on the table for anyone planning their energy strategy.
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