Report Q2 2025: Evolution of the Iberian Electricity and Gas Market
The second quarter of 2025 was defined by significant volatility in electricity and gas prices, in a context of accelerated energy transition.
Electricity:
During this period, baseload and solar prices fell sharply, reaching historic lows in May due to the high penetration of renewable generation, especially solar, which reached negative values (-0.23 €/MWh). In June, however, both products rebounded, evidencing the characteristic volatility of the market and the influence of factors such as system management after extraordinary events.
As for electricity futures, Cal 26 closed at 61.05 €/MWh after slight rallies, while Cal 27 remained more stable, consolidating around 59.5 €/MWh.
Gas:
The MIBGAS spot price ranged from €29.55/MWh to €43.54/MWh, with a downward trend in April, stabilization in May and a one-off spike in June followed by a rapid correction. Gas futures also showed upward pressure, especially Cal 26, which reached highs near €36/MWh in mid-June.
Influential variables:
- Reinforced hydraulic generation: reservoir water levels above the historical average.
- CO₂: price recovery to close at 67.98 €/t.
- Global factors: Brent at $67.61/bbl and euro-dollar parity at 1.172, adding pressure to energy markets.
In summary, Q2 2025 reflects an energy market conditioned by the renewable transition, the management of the electricity system and international factors that maintain volatility as a key element for energy planning.